Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
Department of Civil Engineering, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
3
Department of Water Science Engineering, Ahv.C., Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran.
Abstract
This study presents a comparative evaluation of three machine learning algorithms— Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP)—for predicting the discharge coefficient (Cd) of labyrinth and piano-key weirs. Experimental data were collected from various linear and arced configurations in a laboratory flume. Dimensional analysis identified four key dimensionless predictors: HT/P, Fr, L/W, and R/W. The results demonstrated that while all models provided acceptable trends, the optimized MARS architecture exhibited superior statistical performance and stability. In the training phase, MARS achieved an R2 of 0.9882, RMSE of 0.0194, and MAE of 0.0157, significantly outperforming SVM (R2 = 0.864) and GEP (R2 = 0.967). The robustness was further confirmed in the testing phase, where MARS maintained a high R2 of 0.9792 and a Cd(DDR), max of 6.6331, indicating minimal stochastic variance. Sensitivity analysis revealed that HT/P and Fr are the most influential parameters, each referenced six times in the MARS validated functions. Furthermore, the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and scatter plots validated the high-fidelity alignment of MARS predictions with experimental observations along the 1:1 identity line. The study concludes that the white-box MARS model, with its explicit governing equations and low GCV error (0.000777), serves as the most reliable and transparent computational tool for estimating the hydraulic capacity of complex non-linear weir systems.
Keywords
Subjects